{"id":10558,"date":"2012-03-12T09:04:53","date_gmt":"2012-03-12T13:04:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.raleighpublicrecord.org\/?p=10558"},"modified":"2013-02-11T20:45:20","modified_gmt":"2013-02-12T01:45:20","slug":"studying-the-triangles-future-from-the-sky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theraleighcommons.org\/raleighpublicrecord\/news\/2012\/03\/12\/studying-the-triangles-future-from-the-sky\/","title":{"rendered":"Studying the Triangle\u2019s Future from the Sky"},"content":{"rendered":"

By studying 30 years of satellite imagery, a UNC Charlotte research project discovers Orange, Wake and Durham Counties have developed land at a faster rate than they\u2019ve added people.<\/p>\n

Population in the three-county Triangle area grew 130 percent between 1976 and 2005, while developed acreage increased 650 percent, according to a new study.<\/p>\n

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The study, from the Renaissance Computing Institute<\/a> (RENCI) at UNC Charlotte, predicts 106 percent population growth in the Orange, Wake and Durham County area by 2040, and a 154 percent increase in development.<\/p>\n

Raleigh Senior Planner Matt Keough said one reason the two growth rates are different is because they\u2019re affected by multiple factors.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is not necessarily a direct causal relationship between population growth and land absorption,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

RENCI outreach coordinator Sara Gleave said the institute has already used its Future Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model to project growth and development in the southern Piedmont area and western North Carolina.<\/p>\n

Later this spring, RENCI will release its full report on growth in the 16-county area that includes the Triangle.<\/p>\n

RENCI used population figures provided by North Carolina planners to measure the Triangle\u2019s population growth, and employed satellite imagery to track the increase in development. FUTURES measures the increase by the growth in impervious surfaces such as roads, commercial buildings, homes and parking lots.<\/p>\n

Gleave said the diverse types of development are one reason it increases at a faster rate than population.<\/p>\n

\u201cUntil you see the figures, you may not realize population on a per capita basis is consuming more land,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Gleave said FUTURES projects how much growth the counties in the area will see based on two historical trends: The rate at which population growth has encouraged development in the past and the features that attract the most development.<\/p>\n

In the Triangle, the attractors include urban centers, universities and roads, whereas in western North Carolina, the slope of the land is a major influence.<\/p>\n


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Development Stats from RENCI<\/center><\/strong>
\n\u2022In 1976, 1.9 percent of the Triangle qualified as developed land by RENCI\u2019s definition.<\/p>\n

\u2022That grew to 3 percent in 1985, 5.6 percent in 1995 and 14.2 percent in 2005. <\/p>\n

\u2022The model predicts 36 percent of the Triangle will be covered impervious surfaces in 2040.<\/p>\n

\u2022The rate at which agricultural and natural land developed between 1976 and 2005 averaged 11 acres per day. The developed area grew from 18,286 acres to 136,682. FUTURES predicts development through 2040 will run at a rate of 17 acres per day. <\/p>\n

\u2022Between 1976 and 2005, the amount of developed land per person grew from .04 acres to .12 acres. FUTURES projects a \u201cdevelopment footprint\u201d of .15 acres per person by 2040, a 25 percent increase.
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FUTURES combines those trends with anticipated population growth to project future development patterns.<\/p>\n

John Hodges-Copple, the Regional Planning Director for the Triangle J Council of Governments<\/a> \u2014\u00a0 an organization of\u00a0 local governments including Raleigh and Wake County \u2014 said RENCI and Triangle J use the same population projections. So the study\u2019s prediction of 2,298,086 people in the Triangle by 2040 isn\u2019t new to him.<\/p>\n

What will be new are the final report\u2019s predictions of which areas will see the most growth. He said area planners will compare FUTURES\u2019 projections to their own analyses.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the key assumptions in the FUTURES project is that future trends will be a continuation of past trends,\u201d Hodges-Copple said. \u201cTo take an analogy from the financial investment industry another group that depends on \u2018informed speculation,\u2019 past performance may not be an indicator of future results.\u00a0So FUTURES gives us good information on what might happen if we keep doing what we\u2019ve done in the past.\u00a0 But, of course, the future is never just like the past.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hodges-Copple said most communities in the Triangle J organization have plans to slow the development rate. Evidence indicates more households prefer to live in compact, walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods than live that way today.<\/p>\n

Keough said that the relationship between population growth and development depends, among other things, on how the land is developed, for what purpose, and how intelligently it\u2019s done. What looks like sprawl when vacant land first develops, he said, may become an urban setting down the road if it\u2019s developed strategically.<\/p>\n

Keough said Raleigh\u2019s planning, which is heavily tied in with regional planning efforts, uses different models from RENCI to project future growth, but there\u2019s \u201cdefinite validity\u201d to using satellite imagery.<\/p>\n

He said he found the study interesting, and that local planners will take RENCI\u2019s study into account as \u201cour way of projecting growth is evolving and always has been.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gleave said that because FUTURES\u2019 projections rely on a historical analysis that only runs through 2005, the effects of the recession may change the model\u2019s projections. She said that RENCI will update calculations using 2010 development figures once it has the funding to do so.<\/p>\n

Share your comments: What do you think about the Triangle’s growth and development? <\/em><\/p>\n

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